The PC's Future is Delightfully Complicated [Trends]

The PC is as ubiquitous as the telephone line. Even just for games, it’s home to big-budget retail, massive multiplayer and indie games, and also the primary means to access casual, social and open web games. It is the longest-lived and most robust platform of all time, and has been the starting point for countless success stories.

Yet it’s always been complicated, and that has created room for easier-to-use platforms to emerge. In recent years particularly, some of those platforms have become so important that the idea of Post-PC has gained traction. Fundamental shifts are occurring in how and where we use computers, and will likely have far-reaching consequences for PCs and PC games.

Here are some thoughts on what those consequences might be.

 

How Computing is Changing

Epochal changes that replace technologies like the telephone line happen gradually. Like the flow of glaciers or male pattern baldness, people only really notice it after it happens, not during.

Five years ago the PC was aiming to become your hub of all things computing. It hosted your applications, handled connectivity, storage and entertainment, and what drove the market forward was more impressive hardware based around an unchanging interface. It seemed as though that was how it would always be, but in actual fact it’s not.

One example of this change is in application software. For a few years there have been a variety of limited web apps that can do basic tasks, but which lack the full range of features of ‘proper’ software. Yet those limitation are being pushed back piece by piece, to the point that web apps can now satisfy the 80/20 rule and also offer some delights of their own (such as collaboration).

That still leaves the Photoshop question, which is a way of saying that while web apps are fine for doing simple text-based tasks like email or documents, they’re useless for heavy lifting. This is true unless you consider the potential effect of streaming technology like OnLive and Gaikai. While there is a large question over whether streaming is a good solution for games (because of lag) it is much less of an issue for application use. Is it conceivable that Adobe, Autodesk and others will become streaming providers in the next couple of years? I think it is.

That’s just one kind of change, but there are many others. Email is now fully mobile, for example, and cloud services stream, sync and store files. With iOS5, iPhones and iPads will even be able to operate 100% free of a PC. And just how many ways are there to get entertainment that don’t involve a PC? Lots, with much of it gaming-based and talking a foreign marketing language to that of the PC.

What’s driving the epochal move away from the PC is accessibility. In a world where millions of people still don’t understand right-clicking, touch computing is a godsend. It removes the need to understand abstract actions and replaces them with physical actions. While more capable than any other platform, the Achilles heel of the PC has always been its abstract complexity, and it is fundamentally organised around a different kind of interaction than touch.

The other major driver is mobility. The PC is still about sitting at desks, staring at monitors and using mice and keyboards. It’s less appealing than computing on the go, on the couch, in bed or in the gym. It’s cumbersome to have to put up with the all legacies of the PC just to check email when your smartphone can do that more immediately, and that matters. Tablets are also finding their ways into workplaces where PCs could never go, such as cockpits, and are infinitely easier to bring to meetings or use on the Underground.

Laptops and netbooks are better than desktops for this of course, but they have their limits. Issues like weight, battery life and appropriateness of the operating system linger, and even the lightest netbook is still slow and fiddly in a world that wants fast simplicity.

The combination of vastly superior accessibility and mobility with no need to be tethered to a hub is what Post-PC really means. It means tablets and smartphones in the home instead of a PC, not in addition to one. It means offices where everyone works with a tablet, and PCs are absent. It means cloud hosted applications both for simple and complex uses using a combination of apps, HTML5 and streaming. It means gaming with no need to worry about hardware specifications, nor sit in a chair with a mouse and keyboard to play, easily purchased and cheap.

This shift is so dramatic that Hewlett Packard wants to get out of the PC market entirely, figuring that there’s just no money in it any more. The PC market’s growth has slowed to a crawl (2%), and in all likelihood will shrink. It has also been outstripped by sales of smartphones, while 27m iPads have already been sold since their launch less than 18 months ago. Netbook sales are way down and Acer is reporting its first-ever quarterly loss.

Meanwhile Microsoft, seemingly in panic mode with the development of Windows 8, is trying to include every last touch feature it can think of while also holding onto its Explorer-friendly roots. Even Apple seems to be busily working to redefine the Mac for touch, and my bet is we’ll see a fully touch-based Mac (possibly in an architect-table form factor) within two years.

 

The Discerning PC

If PC ownership in the home and office will no longer be a given then ownership will become more of a deliberate choice. It will not be for everyone, but for everyone who cares. The PC will become a more passionate market that’s choosing to participate, and so too will PC gaming.

The PC is currently widespread enough to support several distinct gaming markets from big box retail through indie to social games and gambling sites. Some of these markets have zero platform loyalty but others are deeply ingrained. Post-PC implies that what the PC will support will be more discerning overall.

We’re already starting to see the effects of this audience split. Hardware developers like Razer feel confident enough to announce a gaming-specific expensive laptop (see today’s image) at a time when everyone else is talking about tablets. Steam continues to make waves as a distribution mechanism, and Microsoft are taking the hint from Apple in creating a Windows app store. These at a time when casual gaming has almost completely deserted the PC for smartphones.

Higher quality computers that speak to the needs of a passionate audience are the future. They’ll cost more, but reassuringly so, and the audience will expect more from their software for less cost. I doubt they’ll be disappointed.

When I asked recently whether post-programming was a possibility, the answers I received formed a resounding No, mostly on the basis that typing-based computing is the best way to get many things done. While I don’t believe that will always be true, the development culture as it exists today does – and that means developers want PCs.

This means the PC will remain the seat of innovation, which is why passionate owners want them in the first place. Your HTML5s, your Unities and so forth will all continue to forge ahead on PC. It will also be less constrained by a muggle market that wanted to hold onto its IE6’s because it will have decamped to touch platforms instead. The PC will leap forward, powerfully, and justify its new position in the computing market as a result.

Like Mark Twain, Michael Dell tweeted, the reports of the PC’s death have been greatly exaggerated. The question is whether PC makers realise that the future requires them to raise their game rather than commoditise it.

The pressure is on to redefine the PC for a market that believes in it and doesn’t want it to become just another touchy-feely environment. Believers want it to be complicated because that also makes it powerful. They don’t want it to be, as Microsoft is trying to push with Windows 8, a shallow imitation of a smartphone on a big monitor.

The market that wants computing simplicity is leaving, but the market that wants complexity intends to stay. The challenge for everyone involved in the PC industry is to realise that it needs to become a premium product all over again rather than the platform of everyman.

A complicated future awaits. And it’s going to be fantastic.

Comments

[Martin Darby]

I think what we will see is that the PC will specialise its role as a content creation device, while post-PC devices will capture increasing market share for content consumption and that will become the primary distinction.

I believe Steve Jobs realised this when he saw that Apple had the technology to manufacture the iPad. Smart guy.

[Jared Hester]

Your usage of the term "PC" seems slightly off. Mobile phones, tablets, laptops, they're all different form factors for personal computing. "Post-pc" is little more than marketing jargon when Apple uses it. The “cloud computing” trend is simply a return to the terminal. You’re still tethered to a machine somewhere, but the internet allows more space to run around while chained.

The most important questions are what form factor are games and software being designed for and where do they expect computation to occur. All that has changed is a new form factor has been added into the mix. It is for this reason that Microsoft’s decisions about Windows 8 are anything but trying to make “a shallow imitation of a smartphone” on a big monitor. When they are considering devices like the Asus EP 121 http://bit.ly/nA0aHi and the tablets that will eclipse it in terms of raw power the Windows 7 UI doesn’t cut it. Their game plan seems to be building a single OS that will run well on desktops, laptops, and tablets without any feeling like the bastard child. I’ve been reading the Building Windows 8 blog regularly http://bit.ly/p3Tewc and so far IMO they are not abandoning power users. I hope that didn’t come off as me being a Windows fanboy, I still have many concerns over how Windows 8 is going to turn out, but your description hardly seemed accurate.

It really isn’t conceivable to think of Adobe and Autodesk becoming streaming providers in the next couple of years because it’s unlikely that people are going to be connected to a strong enough network to have access rates faster than internal transfer speeds. Distributed computation is only one side of the problem, managing gigantic files quickly and responsively is the other big aspect. It’d be awesome if it came faster than the next 4+ years, but I have trouble seeing that as probable.

Even if it were to happen more quickly the way that artists use their computer wouldn’t be changing. A tablet and laptop will never cut it for a lot of computer graphics work. A full keyboard is more useful for a full set of commands, a mouse pointer is necessary for precision work, a Wacom tablet or Cintiq for drawing, and a large high resolution monitor for good color and detail. Where does that leave you? Still working at a desk.

“Higher quality computers that speak to the needs of a passionate audience are the future.” I don’t see how that’s different from the way things are today. The people who want a magic box will flit between OS, form factor, manufacturer depending on whatever happens to be in vogue and whether it’s in their price range. They’ve just started liking games and their importance has been overblown, unless you like making games for them of course, but they were never really here in the first place. They haven’t been building custom rigs off of Newegg and Tiger Direct, they don’t buy new video cards for the latest version of Direct X, and they probably think a dedicated server is the same as a butler.

There’s no need for it to become a premium product all over again, it’s never stopped being one.

[Tadhg]

Thanks for the thoughtful comment Jared.

I think your arguments tend to fall into the 'technically correct but contextually missing the significance' bracket however. For example, yes it's technically true that the mobile phone is a kind of personal computer. It's technically true that cloud computing can trace its heritage back to dumb terminals of the sort that I used to use in university back in 1991.

Those kind of reductionism tends to lead statements like 'All that has changed is that a new form factor has been added into the mix.' as though that's a small thing. When it's actually a very big thing, the sort of thing that rewrites the rules.

Microsoft is developing Windows 8 in order to encompass all sorts of devices, true, but not because tablet is just another form factor. It's because they know full well that they stand to lose significant market share, but at the same time they also know that they risk their existing market.

This is why they have been trying for years to get the world to believe that 'Windows' is more than just Microsoft Windows, but instead a whole ecosystem. It's why the Windows Phone 7 has the name that it does when it clearly has nothing to do with Windows 7 itself. It's why they keep pushing Windows Live, naming every product that they can Windows Live Somethingorother, and so on.

In otherwords, they know full well that they are in a fight for relevance, and their solution (which is understandable if you see it from their point of view) is to try and change the meaning of the name so that it does seem relevant into the next decade. Hence Windows 8 will be on everything everywhere all at once.

The thing is that that's only a problem that Microsoft has. It's not a problem that their customers have. So Microsoft is developing this giant product that's trying to solve a problem that nobody cares about, and the trade-offs for doing are enormous.

It's things like trying to bring one approach to UI (Metro, panels, etc) to all devices. It started with the Xbox, then Windows Phone 7, then tablet, and now PC itself. Does it work in all situations? Not at all. On the phone it's not bad (although arguably too scroll heavy) but pretty. On the Xbox it makes finding content below one menu level a complete disaster. On tablet it looks like it will be good but also expensive (in terms of memory etc) to run. On desktop they are practically falling over themselves to tell everyone that Explorer etc will sit behind the UI.

Basically, Microsoft are trying to create the One Ring in order to stay in the game, but nobody actually needs that. What they need are focused, simple and fast products. They can't seem to get their heads around that.

On streaming connections: If it works for gaming then it will definitely work for software. There are few kinds of software that are so constantly demanding as a game. I agree that the connection architecture is not quite there yet, but it's close. The assumption there is that the files and management of them will also sit in the cloud. So you log into your Adobe suite remotely, and your work is up there in the cloud along with your software.

On use cases: Well it's actually a huge assumption to say that artists will not stop using Wacom pads and the like. The whole point of touch interfaces is that they bring the user closer to the creation, and while they certainly have some issues there is not an artist I know who wouldn't love to be able to draw directly onto the screen than have their drawing action be at one remove from their work. That's why I think Macs are going to move to an architect table format.

Finally, on passion: The point is that the PC can leap forward in terms of power and solving its many legacy issues if it doesn't have to worry about casual users any more. Even the most powerful rig that you can buy today is full of compromise and caveat, bits that need updating and lots of other things that are trying to cover the use case of absolutely everyone. Every PC always exists in tension between what it could be doing in the future versus what it's stuck with in the present and what it's holding onto from the past.

That won't entirely go away, but it will lessen.

Again, thanks for the comment. Much food for thought of a Sunday morning.

[Jared Hester]

You're totally correct about the Adobe and Autodesk software. The "necessity" of storing and backing up files locally had me imagining a monstrous hybrid of local storage and cloud computing and rendering which doesn’t make sense at all. If all they’re streaming is the changes in the images it’s completely feasible that they could do it in a few years.

The main reason artists haven’t stopped using Wacom tablets and haven’t switched to screens they can draw on is price. The Cintiq is that screen you can draw on, it just costs $2000 putting it well out of most artist’s price range. The other advantages the tablets have over the Cintiq is they can work with large monitors (Apple 30” cinema display */drool*) , and the pads covering their active drawing areas can be switched to provide different textures while drawing. As an artist the Asus EP121 is a hypnogogic prelude to my technological wet dream, a true digital sketchbook. It has a Wacom digitizer inside, but the pressure sensitivity, screen size, raw power, and battery life don’t quite cut it yet.

A touch interface and a capacitive screen are hardly enough to simulate natural media and give a high level of control, so until they start making digitizing screens as large as a drafting table, combinations like an Ergotron arm and a Cintiq will have to suffice http://youtu.be/WJZlLF3chxo . When they can take a screen like this one http://bit.ly/qtIKKt build in a digitizer and also hook it up to a haptic pen http://bit.ly/mXZiv9 so that you can feel different levels of pressure as you sculpt in 3D with no glasses I’ll probably have a joygasm induced aneurism before I have a chance to try it.

I’ve been lurking for a few months and should have mention before that I think you’ve been doing excellent work with this blog. As someone who regularly plumbs the depths of game design theory and critique blogs it’s hard to find material that isn’t a rehash of articles/posts I’ve read several times already, but I regularly find your points and topics take a refreshing perspective or cover new material. Keep up the good work.

You may find this video about computer HCI interesting http://vimeo.com/7408389